Is the climate change debate so aggressive
because science abuse the layman’s term: climate?

Has the climate debate turned into a horror scenario because climate means everything and nothing?

by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts,  April 2019

John Locke: "The achievement of human knowledge is often hampered by the use of words without fixed signification" British philosopher, 1632-1704.

For years, one can hear it daily. Climate change is the greatest threat facing our world. Few declare the debate as hoax, like U.S. President Donald Trump, others regard it as real, respectively as an issue that affects the whole of humanity, the future of humans depending on it. As long as only the rise of local or global air temperature is viewed, this is certainly correct. But that is rarely the case. Overwhelmingly all refer primarily to a threat by climate change, which is a distinct issue from a rise of air temperatures. Indiscriminating use of both term simultaneously is a fretful failure, leading to misinformation, disguising, and, if intentionally, a gross delusion. In the way science has been using the word climate over the last decades, the general public and politics is misguided since long. The reason is that science has been incapable to demonstrate that they understand what climate is, and able to define the terms they work with. Actually they use a layman term, broadly understood as average weather (for example the summer season in Florida), as greatest threat facing our world by calling it “climate change”. That is irresponsible and in an objective sense deception. Let’s have a look at the term climate as used by science and climatology.

The misery of the climate discussion already arises with the statement: Weather is not Climate. There are many various around, but topped by a title/sub-title in scientificamerican  (Sept.04,2018) saying: “Don't Be Fooled: Weather Is Not Climate. But climate affects weather, [respectively]:  Weather is affected by climate”. There is also the following quote:

Summing up the distinction between short-term changes in the weather and long term climate trends ……, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, President of the American Meteorological Society, used nine simple words: "weather is your mood and climate is your personality."

Nothing is explained with such comments. They cause confusion and are nothing more than babble. That stems from the fact that weather is a physical state of the atmosphere, and climate merely the numerical statistic of numerous aspects of this state. While the former situation exists for a very short moment only, never repeating again, the latter is a huge amount of numbers and can never convert to weather again.  It is therefore horrible when it is said: climate affects weather. How can any statistic influence the physical condition of the atmosphere?

Unfortunately, this is not just a slip-up, but runs through all the definitions that science uses for weather and climate. Since modern climatology claims to be abler to advise the general public and governments on climate change since about the 1980s, their ability to formulate what they are talking about was remote, if existing at all. Let’s start in 1992, before discussing briefly the background of the term: climate.

UNFCCC

In 1992, the Rio Conference adopted the UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, UNFCCC. Although the word climate is included in the title, the convention offers not any explanation at all (Fig. below). Similar shocking is not to realize that if one wants to explain “climate change” that it is a paramount condition to say what the subject of change shall be. This nonsense is topped when saying: “‘Climate change’ means a change of climate…” (More details see Fig. next left).
According the Dictionary of GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (1992) by W. John Mauder, (pp. 240), Fig. next right:

 

Climate is the synthesis of the day-to-day weather conditions in a given area. The actual climate is characterized by long-term statistics (such as mean values, variances, probabilities of extreme values) of the state of the atmosphere in that area, or of the meteorological elements in that area.

[W.J. Mauder – New Zealand - was for many years Vice- and President of the WMO Commission for Climatology].

This definition is in no way a substitute for the gap left by the UNFCCC. Even the quality of the first sentence can be questioned, as subsequently “actual climate”, and other issues mentioned.

IPCC – Climate

The most prominent institutions on climate are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the American Meteorological Society (AMC). Today they have both lengthy glossaries with more than 12,000 terms (AMS), or over 52 pages (IPCC) respectively. Remarkable - they are both concerning the term climate. On one hand, they differ extremely from each other. On the other hand, each text on climate is at best a joke as an academically reasonable definition. They are both useless in the field of scientific work, and of such big lack of clarity that they undermine any fair and explanatory communication between the general public and politics.  The IPCC definition starts with the confession that there is no better idea than to repeat the layman expression since ancient times: climate is average weather. (Fig. left). At least one would assume that the IPCC Glossary would tell the reader now what is weather, or how average weather is defined, but the Glossary is completely silent on it. The subsequent attempt to describe  climate (more rigorously), as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years, can only be called as naive. What “terms of the mean and variability” shall be used? What are relevant quantities?  The text of the definition lose any ability as a working tool, when the so called ‘classical period’ 30 years is replace by a range ‘from months to thousands or millions of years’. Such a definition is completely useless, which commence with the use of the word weather, which is primarily an individual impression and experience of any person alive, and there are many.

Back in 1987 the WMO Bulletin published the following definition (Fig. below most right)

Climate is the statistical probability of the occurrence of various states of the atmosphere over a given region during a given calendar period;

Weather is the state of the atmosphere over one given region during one given period (minute, hour, day, month, season, year, decade, etc.).         

Source: https://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/bulletin_36-4_en.pdf

from page 290- Introduction

from page 291

from page 295 - Conclusion

From the many ambiguities the text has, the most obvious is that ‘weather’ shall also comprise the state of the atmosphere over years and decades. What demonstrates better than anything else that the author did not understand what he was talking about?

The First IPCC Report, WG I, 02 June 1990, didn’t made any use of the WMO publication five years earlier, but in the Introduction (p. vii) it is merely said:

Climate System
___A simple definition of climate is the average weather.  
___A description of climate over a period (which may typically be from a few years to a few centuries) involves the averages of appropriate components of the weather over that period, together with the statistical variations of those components.
___The driving force for weather and climate is energy from the Sun.

Although there is frequently a reference to weather, the Introduction (as presumably the entire Report, total pages 365) offers nothing, as the current IPCC Glossary. In the published edition by J.T. Houghton et al, 1990, Cambridge University Press the cited text is on page xxxv & xxxvi.

 Almost 30 years later, nothing has changed for better. A layman term was abused to scare the public than, while no effort was spared to increase the pressure ever since.

For more, see the following discussion about AMS definition on climate and weather.

AMS – Climate & Weather

The AMS Glossary offers a different approach. The definition begins with the sentence: “climate is the slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere–hydrosphere–land surface system”, see full text Fig. right.  It is all the Glossary tells about the meaning of climate. It is virtually impossible to make any sense out of it. A definition of ‘nature’ could go equally. All that this boils down to is ‘the interactions of the natural system’, Letter to the Editor, NATURE 1992, Vol. 360, p. 292.
The subsequent sentence no longer refers to climate, but to the ‘climate system’ a term “typically characterized in terms of suitable averages over periods of a month or more”, which is separately defined as:

climate system
The system, consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, determining the earth's climate as the result of mutual interactions and responses to external influences (forcing).
Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in the interactions among the components of the climate system.
                            http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Climate_system

Also the next about 70 words contribute little to make the term a reliable asset. The only interesting aspect is, that the AMS climate definition back off using such terms as ‘average weather’, ‘statistical description’,  or ‘relevant quantities’, but explains nothing, and says practically the same as the explanation of the ‘climate system’.
But different from IPCC the AMS Glossary defines weather ( next Fig. ).  Interesting that the first paragraph confirms what was already said above, that weather is “primarily an individual impression and experience”, namely:

WEATHER is „The state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities.”

But the definition runs afoul and inconsistently immediately when the next two sentences state:

As distinguished from climate, weather consists of the short-term (minutes to days) variations in the atmosphere.
        Question: Where is the 1st and 2nd sentence compatible?

Popularly, weather is thought of in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind.
       Question: What has this distraction (popularly) to do in a scientific definition? On the other hand, it confirms that also “weather” is primarily a layman term.

How inconsequently also the AMS weather definition has been drafted comes to light if it describes that

The "present weather" table consists of 100 possible conditions, with 10 possibilities for "past weather"; both are encoded numerically.  

This shows evidently that also AMS has no definition of weather, but uses the word as it fits best. Five conditions here, 12 conditions there and thereon called climate. But weather is weather and cannot consist one time of 100 conditions, and if convenient for making a case consist of 3 conditions. Not surprisingly “future weather” is not mentioned.

Climate is a layman term – A short background

The concept of climate can be found in Greece in fifth century BC. To Hippocrates of Kos (~460 – ~370 BC) it comprised airs, waters, places associates season, prevailing winds, and the quality of the air and water with the physical condition of people. The earliest notions of ‘klimat’ were linked to sun inclination, and latitude. Over 2000 years the term climate is a solid public domain. Like weather, the word reflects a general impression. People not necessarily like to talk about climate and weather, but need to find out, which issues are needed to have an informative conversation, e.g. temperature, sun shine, rain, wind, etc. In countries with quickly changing weather conditions, as in Western Europe, the talks on weather are more intensive and lengthy, as in the Sahara with little changes. It is more abstract when merely seasonal conditions for a holiday abroad, for example in Morocco in May is of interest, commonly called climate.

During the last several century philosophers, writers and researchers used the term climate as well. For example the German naturalist and geographer A. von Humboldt (1769 –1859) defined climate as “all the changes in the atmosphere that perceptibly affect our organs”.  But none could be called a climatologist, as that term came into use only well after World War II.  At best the term ‘climate’ existed in the layman’s way. The preface of the book by V. Conrad (1946): Methods in Climatology.  Harvard University Press; pages 228, states in the first and last paragraph (p. vii):

Climate influences the surface of the earth, and this conversely, in its conditions. This intimate mutual connection makes climatology and climatography appear as parts of geography, because they are essentially necessary to describe the surface of the earth and its changes. These ideas find their expression in the fact that generally the colleges and universities, climatology as a whole is treated in the geographical departments. Perhaps the dependent role of climatology may be attributed also to the fact that geographers have so greatly furthered this science.

The general introduction presents climatology as a world science, and its international organization. The number of observations in the meteorological register makes the necessity of statistical methods evident.

Until the end of the 1940s, only the number of observations and statistical methods were of interest. Two prominent meteorologists confirmed few decades later, that the term climate was rarely used

·         H.H. Lamp (Nature, Vol. 223, 1969): Only thirty years ago climatology was generally regarded as the mere dry-as-dust bookkeeping end of meteorology.
Definitions of climate and climatology have varied. That (still widely) definition of climate as “average weather” must surely be regarded as quite inadequate. Climate comprises the totality of weather experienced at a given place. 

Meanwhile efforts are made to present climate and climatology as a long standing interest of science, at least for the last 150 years. For example Roger G. Barry (in Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 33, 2013), is saying: “The term climate has a 600-year history, but only came into widespread use about 150 years ago.” The crux with such a statement is, that the entire assessment is based on the layman term: “climate is average weather”, which is “surely quite inadequate” as H.H. Lamp observed back in 1969 (see above).  But still in 2019 IPCC rely on it, and AMS evade this point by talking instead of the ‘climate system’, see discussion above.

What should be the conclusion? A science which is not able to define in a clear and understandable manner, what they are talking about, does not deserve being recognized as a competent academic discipline.

The use of words that are of 'emotional importance' to the public must be clear, reasonable, and comprehensible. Otherwise, there is a danger that it may come to an objective deception. The debate on climate change does not meet John Locke (1632-1704) requirement of “fixed signification”.   

Is there a solution? Yes, by recognizing that the ocean is the base of the weather,
while sticking to the fact that any statistic always remains a statistic!

If one regards the words weather and climate primarily as an individual impression and experience of any person, respectively of emotional importance to the public, one should leave it in the public domain. Furthermore it seems most unlikely, that the terms can reasonably define in an academic manner, which would require a wording that does not mix-up with any layman understanding.  But if the term Climate shall be used, not the weather but the oceans must be the centerpiece of the definition.

Already back in 1984 J. D. Woods explained the role of the ocean in the planetary system (excerpts):

Approximately 80% of solar energy intercepted by our planet enters the atmosphere over the oceans. About 50% of this energy flux reaches the bottom of the atmosphere after 25% has been reflected by, and 19% absorbed in the atmosphere. Neglecting atmosphere bias between continental and ocean regions, the oceans receive 40%, and the continents 10% of the intercepted energy. …The ocean is the principal initial recipient of energy entering the planetary climate system….
Almost all of this radiative flux into the ocean is absorbed in the top 100 m. (cont,//) 
                  [in: The Global Climate, Cambridge (Uni. Press), 1984, p. 142.].

The ultimate source in the planetary scenario is water, of which is only a very small percentage in the atmosphere. At any moment, the atmosphere contains only the amount of water, which would cover the entire surface of the Earth (land and ocean) with as little rain as one inch (2,5 cm) only. The water volume of the ocean is 1000 times bigger, and has only a mean temperature of about +4° Celsius. The huge stability of the oceans over long periods of time is amazing, but even minor change in current status of the ocean, will  make the rising air temperature and greenhouse discussion looking much too narrow. It is high time that any definition in this respect needs to acknowledge that the current and future planetary weather system depends on the oceans, or briefly: Oceans Govern Climate.

Further reading:

CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR THE PROTECTION OF THE WORLD CLIMATE AS SEEN BY A SEAMAN AND LAWYER

Paper presented by at the GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht / Hamburg on December 4, 1992; pages ca. 45

Continue reading about the definition of climate:

Climate - A never ending Story? Never for layman! – For science it should soon! Posted May 24, 2019  First at on May 19, 2019: https://oceansgovernclimate.com/ The previous post on the topic - April 17, 2016 - here: https://oceansgovernclimate.com/climate-is-a-big-issue-but-science-cannot-say-what-it-is/ Let’s face it. Except on some religious and faith expressions the word climate has managed to become the most magical common term in modern time. Our previous post explained, that the word has a several thousand year’s history, but during the last few decades science uses it as ‘it fits best’ to underline the impression of competence, and in a similar way to scare the public and politions alike. Let’s face it. For any layman weather and climate are individual and emotional terms, accompanying him any hour on every day throughout his life. A few or several weather conditions may have an impact on what to eat or drink, what to wear, how to go to work or on a walk, which gardening to do, what hat to put on, or sun cream to use, and so on. In the layman’s world climate is merely a summary or a few aspects of weather condition in a certain location and time period, which may exist when planning a work trip to Anchorage in December, or holidays in Malta or South Africa next spring. Let’s face it. Science, meteorology and climatology presumably understand something of the one hundred conditions composing the atmosphere currently, and also fairly correctly few days ahead, commonly called weather. Is this already the end of any consensus on the importance of weather and climate between the lay world and science? ·        Yes with regard to weather! Not one ordinary man would ever see his “present weather as consisting of 100 possible conditions” (see AMS-definition, Fig.). ·        Defiantly yes with regard to climate! The layman’s term is neither based on numerical statistics, nor would he ever consider “the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years, (see IPCC-definition, Fig.).   Let’s face it. The way the lay world understands and is using the words weather and climate is very different from the way science defines them an is presenting them in their scientific work to the general public. That they not even show any capability or willingness to see the huge discrepancy is a serious obstacle in a fair and fruitful climatic debate. Let’s face the fact. Science seems happy to use floppy definitions, if at all. Although the UNFCCC (Climate Change Convention, 1992) is soon getting 30 years old, one never could hear any complain, that the most fundamental terms weather and climate are not defined, although numerous essays have been written on the subject. Here are few essays analyzed about the term and processing of the UNFCCC: Daniel Bodansky (I) - On the road to a Draft Convention On Climate Change – Until December 1991 http://www.whatisclimate.com/e516a-daniel-bodansky-road-to-draft-convention-on-climate-change-december-1991.html Daniel Bodansky (II) – 1993 – The Convention in place – A Commentary http://www.whatisclimate.com/e516b-daniel-bodansky-1993-convention-in-place-commentary.html Daniel Bodansky (III) – 2004 – On how the FCCC emerged http://www.whatisclimate.com/e516c-daniel-bodansky-how-fccc-emerged.html Roger. A. Pielke Jr. on:  - Misdefining “climate change”: consequences for science and action – 2005 http://www.whatisclimate.com/e510-roger-pielke-jr-misdefining-climate-change.html J. F. Pulvenis explains UNFCCC (1994): No real negotiations – Take it or leave it – Undeniable success.   http://www.whatisclimate.com/e520-pulvenis-explains-UNFCCC-no-real-negociations-undeniable-success.html   Let’s face the fact. Science seems to have little interest in listening and learning, as the following example indicates. Ten years ago 18 of the most notable U.S. research organizations wrote an open letter to the Senators (in PDF) dated October 21, 2009, writing –inter alias - excerpts: ___As you consider climate change legislation, we, as leaders of scientific organizations, write to state the consensus scientific view. ___climate change is occurring ___ climate change will have broad impacts on society ­­­___ severity of climate change ___ We in the scientific community offer our assistance to inform your deliberations as you seek to address the impacts of climate change.  In the letter of 236 words, ‘climate change’ appears seven times. This letter got a reply by surface mail and online about three weeks later, dated November 12, 2009 (in PDF), expressing –inter alias- following concern (excerpts):   ___ How could it happen that more than a dozen of the most prestigious scientific associations signed and submitted this letter on ‘climate change’ without having ensured that the used terminology is sufficiently defined.  Good science can and is required to work with reasonable terms and explanations.  ___ Actually nowadays climate is still defined as average weather, which may be fine for the general public, but nonsense as scientific term. ___ Article 1 of the FCCC providing definitions offers none on the term “climate”, and if it had been based on the common explanation on “average weather”, the word “weather” would have required a definition as well. ___ If your organization believes that “rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities“ have an impact on air temperatures, then any alert should be restricted to this aspect. Nothing has changed ever since. By the way. The two open letters were posted by the website “The Air Vent    - Because the world needs another opinion” by Jeff Id on November 13, 2009. Few days later the infamous hacker FOIA provided in comment No.10 a link to more than 1,000 emails and 3,000 other documents from the Climatic Research Unit from the University of East Anglia (UK). Did FOIA endorsed with his selection of the Jeff-Id post also concern with the climate definition?  No one knows. FOIA was never identified. But “Climate Gate” (see: Wikipedia) took its course. More on the FOIA story; The Climate Gate Story -2009 – How it came about!   Collection of Information, Material, Discussion from 2007 t0 2012 A Basics & The term Climate B Climate & Climate change C Weather & Climate 114a_ American Meteorology Society’s Glossary concerning the meaning of: weather, climate, and climate change 111_ UNFCCC's "Glossary of climate change acronyms" - Two UNFCCC glossaries with surprises - 113_ Various Glossaries Concerning meaning of:  Climate, climate change, and weather more 202 Open Letter on „Climate Change: Reply concerning the letter, 21st October, to the U.S.A. Senate by the listed institutions 206 IPCC says that there are important differences between weather and climate. Is the claim serious science? 211_ What is Climate, had been asked when: Climate Science: Roger A. Pielke Sr Research Group Weblog started in July 2005 212_ Need to talk about, 2009 more 304_ Just a word on the words "weather" and "climate". Here science fails 305_ What is Weather? Is 'average weather' climate? 330_ Prof. Roger A. Pielke Sr calls for recognition that an equivalence of global warming and climate change is erroneous 315_ How did Thomas A. Blair describe in 1942: Weather, Climate and Climatology? more D Climatology, Politique & International Institutions E Contribution & Papers on UNFCCC F This & That -in brief- 410_ Recently, April 2007, WMO evaluated its role in 'Global Climate Change Issues' 411_ About Valerio Lucarini’s effort to define climate science in 2002 more 510_ Roger. A. Pielke Jr. on: Misdefining "climate change", 2005 516b_Daniel Bodansky (II) – 1993 – The Convention in place – A Commentary 516c_Daniel Bodansky (III) – 2004 – On how the FCCC emerged more Various V (and more) Various VI (and more) VariousVII (and more) more